Saturday, September 13, 2025

The "Certainty System": How I Use Math to Rebalance My CDP Dividend Portfolio | Lin Cangyan


According to DBS NAV Planner, my property (a 3-room HDB flat) only accounts for 12.35% of my total assets. For years, I've maintained that my home is for my own living, using Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (S-REITs) and DBS Retail Unit Trusts as tools for my personal financial management and investment.

I decided to retire early, at age 58, on March 1, 2024, seven years earlier than the official retirement age of 65, which was originally scheduled for 2030.

My CPF investments have maintained a profitable return on investment so far. On March 16, 2024, having reached the FRS, I decided to close my CPF investments and withdraw all my CPF investments, allowing me greater flexibility and convenience in managing my retirement assets.

The value of investment funds fluctuates with global economic developments, so the timing of fund redemptions is crucial. Past returns, which can be found online, are for reference only. The following is my CPF Investment portfolio before closing, please feel free to refer to it:

73.56% — FSSA dividend advantage fund
6.84% — Mapletree Pan Asia Cm reit
5.67% — Frasers log & co tr
3.79% — Sasseur reit
3.67% — Lendlease gl co reit
3.53% — Capitaland ascendas reit
2.92% — Aims apac reit

Achieving retirement officially opens the door to my money working for me. I no longer work for money and become fully committed to controlling my finances and my time. The next step is to reduce investment risk, increase sustainable investment returns, and properly manage my retirement assets.

The first formula below estimates the actual amount of cash invested in my CDP fund, using my Amova Singapore Dividend Equity Fund (ASDE) as a benchmark. It provides a standardized way to track relative performance.

Estimated CDP Cash Invested Principal = (ASDE Principal x CDP Market Value) / ASDE Market Value

The second formula below tells me the actual dividend yield of my CDP portfolio, adjusted for invested capital. I regularly update this data in Excel to monitor whether my portfolio remains within my target yield range of 4-8%.

Annual CDP Dividend Return % = (Total Annual CDP Dividends Received x 100) / Estimated CDP Cash Invested Principal

The above formula provides a deterministic (data-based) way to measure the performance of my CDP portfolio by projecting potential paper gains or losses. You can also use the above formula to benchmark your CDP fund against an index fund or ETF. Maintaining no more than 10% of your entire fund in any single stock is generally quite safe.


插图仅用于教育目的,想看中文版本,请阅读我的小红书笔记我如何用两个关键的公式管理我的投资组合?

Generally speaking, I'm not a risk-taker. I tend to choose decisions with clearly defined and controllable risks, carefully designing my life to keep those risks within manageable limits, and ensuring they are clearly visible and repeatable. The systems I build are designed to control and manage risk, making it bearable. 

I’m not trying to predict the market. I rebalance when my cash buffer falls below a set range, gradually reducing positions and simplifying the portfolio.

I learned how to invest properly through the CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS). Without CPFIS, I probably wouldn’t have the portfolio I have today. In many ways, my entire investment system actually grew out of the CPFIS framework.

The CPF Investment Scheme also helped me develop a disciplined investment strategy and, more importantly, kept me away from investment scams.

The formula image was generated by Microsoft Copilot

About my work >> https://www.facebook.com/libra1966bensim/directory_work

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Systematic Transition to Passive Income: How I Manage a SGD 667 Monthly Expense Strategy | Lin Cangyan


Since I officially retired on March 1, 2024, I've been tracking my expenses every month using Google Sheets. The above Google Sheets pie chart reflects my personal expenses for August 2025 (I only started using the SG60 Neighborhood Shopping Voucher in September).

I enjoy buying groceries from supermarkets and online. I prepare three meals (膳食) a day at home almost every day with great care, rarely eating out.

To conserve electricity, I've resolutely avoided installing a water heater. There is an air conditioner installed at home, but rarely use it. Clothes are washed by hand; there is no washing machine at home and have no plans to purchase one.

I own my house and live with my sister, so I don't have to pay rent, thanks to the "Home Ownership Scheme" policy in Singapore.

Before retirement, I focused on building my own investment portfolio, appropriately taking and managing necessary risks, and refused to purchase any private insurance packages (this was a personal choice made by me after I had already obtained the national MediShield Life insurance and completed a personal risk assessment, and does not constitute general advice), so I did not have to pay premiums.

After retirement, my investment portfolio, composed of Unit Trusts, high-dividend stocks and Singapore Government Bonds (SSBs), provided a steady cash flow, allowing me to smoothly transition from work income to passive income, which is completely tax-free in Singapore.

I never dream of getting rich overnight. My fundamental financial philosophy is to increase income, reduce unnecessary expenses, and rapidly increase reliable investments.

The final total is SGD $667, which account for about 29.73% of my monthly passive income. This means I still have some left over 70.27% for medical treatment, travel, or investment. Currently, approximately 43% of my total annual passive income is reinvested in DBS Bank retail unit trusts in Singapore.

According to my Google Sheets and my Investment records, my average monthly spending and passive income as below: 

2024 financial year summary, my average monthly passive income was SGD 2200, and my average monthly expenditure was SGD 552.60, resulting in a passive income generation surplus efficiency of 74.88%.

2025 financial year summary, my average monthly passive income was SGD 2900, and my average monthly expenditure was SGD 613.53, resulting in a passive income generation surplus efficiency of 78.84%


Image above generated by Microsoft Copilot


According Claude AI estimation, most retirees: Passive income surplus efficiency 30-50%

Your efficiency: 78.84%

This means your wealth grows 1.5-2 times faster than others.

“This efficiency represents a self-reinforcing system where surplus becomes reinvestment power.”  



Image above generated by ChatGPT

插图仅用于教育目的,想看中文版本或更多信息请访问我的小红书的笔记 :我成功的从工作收入转型到退休后的被动收入

Why Structural Tension Between China and the U.S. Is Persistent🤔


A Systems Perspective and Personal Asset Response

1. Framing the Problem

This article is not a prediction, nor financial advice.
It is a systems interpretation of structural forces—and a personal response to them.

Over the past decades, many have hoped for a stable and cooperative relationship between China and the United States. However, from a systems perspective, such stability is inherently difficult to sustain.

The issue is not about leaders, policies, or short-term events.
It is about structure.


2. The Core Hypothesis

Long-term structural tension between China and the U.S. is highly likely,
because both systems are operating under incompatible equilibrium conditions.


3. System Layer 1: Economic Structure

  • China:
    • Export-oriented manufacturing system
    • High savings, production surplus
  • United States:
    • Consumption-driven economy
    • Reserve currency dependency

👉 Structural conflict:

  • One system produces surplus
  • The other absorbs it

This creates:

Dependency + imbalance → periodic friction


4. System Layer 2: Technological Control

Technology is no longer neutral.

  • Semiconductors
  • AI systems
  • Supply chains

👉 These are now:

Strategic control nodes

Conflict arises because:

  • Control of technology = control of future economic power

5. System Layer 3: Political Logic

  • China → long-term centralized planning
  • U.S. → electoral cycle-driven decision-making

👉 Result:

Different time horizons → policy misalignment


6. System Layer 4: Security Feedback Loop

Each side interprets the other’s actions as:

  • Expansion
  • Containment
  • Risk

👉 This creates:

A self-reinforcing feedback loop

Even defensive actions are perceived as offensive.


7. Why “Zero Tension” Is Unlikely

Because removing tension would require:

  • Economic restructuring
  • Political system convergence
  • Strategic trust

👉 None of these are easily achievable simultaneously.

Therefore:

Stability may exist temporarily,
but structural tension remains embedded in the system.


8. My Personal Response (Not Advice)

Given this structural interpretation, I made a personal decision:

I gradually reduced exposure to assets highly dependent on the U.S. dollar system.

This is not a recommendation.

It is simply a reflection of how I align my personal decisions with my understanding of systemic dynamics.


9. Final Thought

This is not about predicting conflict.
It is about recognizing structure.

A system does not need to collapse to generate tension.
It only needs to remain misaligned.


Image generated by ChatGPT and Microsoft Copilot respectively

想看中文版本,请阅读我的小红书笔记为什么中美关系“回不去了”?一个系统性解读

更多中文版视频,请访问我的B-站 https://space.bilibili.com/3546754987330372
More Chinese version video, please visit my Station B at https://space.bilibili.com/3546754987330372